El Salvador

Two years of accomplishment and a few days of confusion

Donald Lee

07/06/2011

Opinión

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It is time to prepare marks for the government of Mauricio Funes and the FMLN, on the second anniversary of its inauguration. But how do we evaluate a government - any government in any country? What are the factors and what is the appropriate scale for including all the factors in one overall result.

Some adopt a scale from zero to five; others a scale from zero to ten. This writer prefers a scale from minus five to plus five, in order to make it clear that a government could fail - yes fail - in the performance of its mission and its duty.

And to end the suspense for my readers, I give the government of Mauricio Funes and the FMLN party, after two years of work, a mark of plus two - in other words, good but not very. I am left with the job of explaining the various aspects that were considered in the process of arriving at that final result of the analysis.

The various aspects are public safety, the economy, social inclusion, politics as such, and democratic culture. Each one of these items has the same weight in the balance, in the formula which is used to calculate the overall score, because in the long term, the society cannot move forward without fostering coordinated advances in each of these aspects. And in the end, the construction of a democratic culture is overarching goal.

Public Safety

Under this heading, we are all very clear, including the members of the government, that we have not seen any advance in the daily experience of the people at large. The extortions continue; even the smallest of businesses, including door-to-door salespeople are obliged to pay rent to the gangs, just for subsistence. Thefts on public transport continue daily. We oscillate between 11 and 13 murders per day, which puts at the top of the continental league. Only our afflicted neighbour Honduras disputes the crown. And the great majority of those responsible continue without being punished.

It is true that the presence of the armed forces in the jails is imposing a more restrictive regime on the prisoners, but those same jails are overcrowded, housing an average of double their designed capacity. The penitentiary system is on the edge of chaos.

It is also undeniable that the justice system does not work. The cases of those facing charges being freed for lack of due process do not happen every day but are routine, and serve as the perfect material for making fun of the law. The highest tribunals in the country are known more for the internal conflicts and their corruption than for their efficiency. It is far too easy to buy a small error in the process and thus go unpunished.

In some sense, I do not want to blame the government, nor the Minister of Public Safety, nor the Director of the National Civil Police. In fact, the entire region from the Rio Grande to Colombia is in a state of war with the drug-trafficking industry. I do not want to discount the efforts of all the honest people involved, but they are not sufficient.

The most that we can hope is that the efforts are bit-by-bit encircling the criminal industry and their labyrinth of sold-out officials; that we are planting the basis for improving public safety. But today, safety and justice do not touch ordinary people. Their day-to-day conditions have not changed, and with that, we have to assign a mark of zero under this heading.

The Economy

El Salvador does not have any natural economic advantage, other than its abundant and cheap workforce. This is not substantial growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the prospects for generating growth in the three years that remain of the period of the current government are few. Private companies have resisted dialogue with the government and continue lobbying for better conditions for any possible investment.

But it is little use to criticize the government for not having overcome the global recession; for not having changed the country's dependence on remittances; for having provided incentives for investment. These would be cheap criticisms. None of the other parties could have done better.

What has been accomplished is to establish the foundations of a new consensus concerning the relationship between the state [government] and private companies as associates in specific investments and in formulating a national economic strategy for the long term.

We lack well-defined and agreed projects with which we could hang meat on the bare bones of the nice-sounding speech, which today allows the spokespersons of private business to talk the same language as a government on the left. This is indeed a substantial change, but for the moment, only in the speech.

Because of this lack of concrete results, I am left obliged to assign a mark of zero economic portfolio. Although the government can point to positive prospects, global reality and the political interests of private business will tend to postpone concrete results until another moment beyond the period of the current government.

Social Inclusion

Under the heading of social inclusion, everyone agrees on congratulating the government for guaranteeing free education at the primary level, for guaranteeing access to public hospitals and clinics without cost, and for subsidizing the incomes of the old and the most poor. To this consensus we should add a secondary impact - the strengthening of the informal economy.

What I intend to suggest is that the various forms of reinforcing the incomes of poor households also produces economic growth, but not the kind of growth that registers much in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The greater portion of these new forms of family income, whether in cash or in kind, are spent in local shops, in the informal economy, and in businesses that do not charge sales tax. It seems to me therefore, that the social advances also contribute to economic growth, although it happens in a form which is not perceived in the statistics.

We should note at the same time, that the commitment of the government to the neediest sectors, could not be realized if it were not for a change of climate amongst political parties on the right and international financial institutions. The specific programs of social inclusions were approved in the Legislative Assembly, by the FMLN of course, but also enjoyed the votes of deputies in other parties on the right. Furthermore, the greater portion of the costs is covered by loans from the World Bank and the Inter-American Development Bank.

Those who today support the initiatives of a government on the left are the same ones who insisted on neo-liberal measures, cutting budgets and privatizing government institutions, throughout the post-war period. It could be observed that the change of perspective amongst parties on the right, at the financial institutions, even in the government to the USNA, is only temporary and to serve their strategic interests in a prolonged period of serious, global recession.

But in practical terms, the ideological and political perspective of the current government of Funes and the FMLN, takes advantage of these same conditions to implement a change, which in the Salvadorian context should be interpreted as a radical change. Until the first of June 2009, the Salvadorian government was the one that spent less and collected less taxes in the entire territory below the Rio Grande on both continents.

And so, under the heading of social inclusion, we give the Funes government a score of three. And we revise the score under the heading of the economy to give one instead of zero.

Politics

In the very moment of preparing this evaluation, the car has been flipped over. An extraordinary decree, opposed by the FMLN, was approved by the Legislative Assembly with the votes of ARENA y GANA, del PCN y del PDC, that is, all the right-wing parties. This same decree was hastily approved by the President of the Republic and published in the Official Gazzette that come into force from June 2.

The decree provides that future judgments of the Supreme Court, on constitutional issues, will have to be unanimous. This criterion is indeed extraordinary. Up to this moment, no precedent could be found in any other country.

Those who want to defend the measure note that it is only temporary, staying in force until next June 1st, 2012. They also argue that the court has taken legislative powers unto itself with recent decisions, and that it intends to rule on the constitutionality of several sensitive issues: such as dollarization [of the economy]; such as the free trade agreement with the USA; such as the warrant for the arrest of 20 military officials accused in a Spanish court of murdering six Jesuit fathers and their two servants in 1989.

The most alarmed, amongst them a spokesperson for the legislative caucus of ARENA, speculate that the anticipated rulings would take the country back to armed conflict. It appears that the President shares the sense of alarm.

The recent court decisions that are being referred to, touch on the form of voting in the 2012 elections, on the requirements for registration as a party, and on independent candidates. Perhaps the most sensitive question is the elimination of the PCN and the PDC from the register of parties qualified to participate in the 2012 elections.

With respect to the form of voting, the Assembly has been looking for a way to respond to the decisions of the court, but has not been capable of overcoming the technical difficulties. In practical terms, it is very difficult, even impossible, to harmonize the right to nominate independent candidates, on a ballot used to elect 25 deputies in the Department of San Salvador, in a system of proportional voting on the basis of lists put forward by the political parties.

In spite of the technical difficulties, the parties were coming close to a new consensus and a new decree for amending the electoral code, but the right feared that the court might declare it unconstitutional. The circumstances threaten two historic parties with extinction, and further the nation, with the possibility of coming to the date of new elections for deputies in March of 2012, without the new Legislative Assembly having constitutional legitimacy.

And so, the noise against the decree is overwhelming and brings even those same parties on the right to further division. There are several deputies on the right who do not conform to the line of their party on this question.

For my own part, I go back to the comments and opinions that were being expressed a few days ago. The predominant opinion was that the administration of Mauricio Funes, including the various ministers from the FMLN party, has demonstrated a maturity and political ability, at once impressive, consistent and effective. That the right had been broken up and with that the historical basis of corruption and impunity!

That they had achieved obliging the right to accept its participation in forums of national consensus on essential issues which impact the future of the nation, with mister Funes at the wheel! That they had guaranteed a majority in the Legislative Assembly for their initiatives! One right-wing columnist went so far as to comment that the most serious error of President Funes was to have destroyed the opposition.

Clearly the criterion of unanimity of the court on constitutional issues prejudices the equilibrium amongst the main institutions of democracy and the fundamental rights of the citizens. These recent and unexpected events lead me to take away high marks from the government under the heading of "democratic culture". Under the heading of politics as such, it give it a four.

I believe Funes is constructing a basis of national unity and a Supreme Court, which would be sufficiently whole [strong] to confront the reality of thousands of crimes against humanity without degenerating into a new armed conflict. Furthermore, in the short term, we can hope for a new Legislative Assembly in March 2012 which will not be undermined by suits against its legitimacy. This is indeed real politics.

I hold back the fifth point, and with that perfection, because of the various errors of implementation in the various ministries that form part of the government. The overall project continues with good prospects. More important than the mistaken decree is the dialogue which is imposed on all the political forces. Salvadorians, including the politicians, are like many other people in other countries; they do not accept change unless there is no option. In this case, they are obliged to plant a culture of dialogue and consensus, of constructing national unity, or falling collectively into the abyss.

Democratic Culture

Under this heading, up to Thursday, June 2, I intended to congratulate the government of Funes and the FMLN with a mark of three. But following on the confirmation of the anti-democratic decree such much discussed, I cannot congratulate them -- only note what is positive -- I give a two.

We have already indicated the new tendency toward dialogue, for some the inevitable result of alternating [the party in] power by peaceful means for the first time in the history of the country. But we should remember all the forces that continued hoping to maintain their historic power. Dialogue was not the inevitable result; it is the result constructed step-by-step by the government of Mauricio Funes and the FMLN.

Funes insisted that the other forces should participate in the process of constructing national unity, the feeling of common destiny. ARENA did not want to accept, but today is participating. Funes insisted that private business should participate with other sectors of society in building consensus on national economic strategy. Private business did not want to accept, but today they are participating.

It is also fair to include the FMLN in this good marks. Its ministers have managed important portfolios with maturity and patience and the same commitment to dialogue with all those affected by their initiatives: Humberto Centeno in gobernación; Hugo Martínez in foreign relations; Manuel Melgar in public safety; Gerson Martínez in Public Works; Salvador Sánchez Cerén in education and Vice-President.

Salvadorians are very reticent people; they prefer not to express their opinion. Many still do not trust the secret ballot. The history of electoral fraud and of beating rather than listening is way too long. Taking away a little of the economic desperation, with time, also takes away that fear of expressing yourself.

The old continue to distrust, but now the young imagine a different future for themselves. With just going to school instead of to work at the heaviest and dirtiest jobs, they become accustomed to express themselves in place of staying quiet. These are also amongst the secondary impacts of a policy of social inclusion - a contribution to the construction of democratic culture.

I do not want to finish this note without noticing that the opening of a process toward justice and an end to impunity. The government is directly supporting initiatives to search for and restore the identities of children kidnapped during the armed conflict. The government also facilitated the recognition of the martyrdom of Romero by President Barack Obama, an historic step toward trying those implicated in his murder. The arrest warrant for the military officers implicated in the murder of the Jesuits is another significant step.

Funes has said that his government will not revise the amnesty law which assures impunity, but tentative steps are being taken toward a process of true reconciliation.

Conclusion

Summarizing the five categories that we have touched on and respecting the criterion that they are equal in importance and weight, we are left with the result outlined below:

Category	Mark
Public Safety	0
The Economy	1
Social Inclusion	3
Politics	4
Democratic Culture	2
TOTAL	10
AVERAGE	2

For its performance in the first two years of its term, we give the government of Mauricio Funes and the FMLN a mark of "plus two", on a scale from minus 5 to plus 5.

- Donald Lee, Suchitoto, Cuscatlán, 7 June 2011

SALSOL Observer, 2011.no.3

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